Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 16
Atalanta – Napoli
Gewiss Stadium (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 25,000. City: Bergamo. Opened: 1928. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Atalanta ↓ · Napoli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.3% | Most Likely Result: 12.6% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 5.9% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (12.6%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.35 – 1.39
- Expected Points
- 1.34 – 1.39
- Both Teams to Score
- 56.0%
- Over 2.5
- 51.5%
- Under 2.5
- 48.5%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Atalanta have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Atalanta have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Napoli have scored in 9 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Atalanta
- 9
- Draws
- 3
- Napoli
- 12
24 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Atalanta finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.