Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 15
Parma – Fiorentina
Stadio Ennio Tardini (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 22,352. City: Parma. Opened: 1923. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Parma ↓ · Fiorentina → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.7% | Most Likely Result: 13.2% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (13.2%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.02 – 1.39
- Expected Points
- 1.09 – 1.63
- Both Teams to Score
- 48.6%
- Over 2.5
- 43.4%
- Under 2.5
- 56.6%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Parma have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Parma haven't lost to Fiorentina in their last 6 meetings (1W, 5D).
- Fiorentina have scored in 8 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Parma
- 4
- Draws
- 6
- Fiorentina
- 2
12 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Parma finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.