Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 15
Napoli – Milan
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 54,726. City: Naples. Opened: 1959. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Napoli ↓ · Milan → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.4% | Most Likely Result: 12.8% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 7.9% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (12.8%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.45 – 1.15
- Expected Points
- 1.58 – 1.15
- Both Teams to Score
- 52.7%
- Over 2.5
- 48.1%
- Under 2.5
- 51.9%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Napoli have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Napoli have scored in 9 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Napoli
- 12
- Draws
- 6
- Milan
- 6
24 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Napoli finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.