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 Week 14
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 14

Genoa – Torino

Stadio Luigi Ferraris (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 33,205. City: Genoa. Opened: 1911. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Genoa
37%
Draws
30%
Torino
34%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Genoa ↓ · Torino →0123456
011.1%11.1%6.3%2.3%0.6%0.1%0.0%
111.7%Most Likely Result: 13.8%7.3%2.6%0.7%0.2%0.0%
27.0%7.7%4.2%1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%
32.7%3.0%1.6%0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%
40.8%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
50.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
1 - 1 (13.8%)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15 – 1.09
Expected Points
1.40 – 1.31
Both Teams to Score
45.9%
Over 2.5
38.9%
Under 2.5
61.1%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Torino have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Genoa

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W

Torino

  1. D
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Genoa
5
Draws
6
Torino
11

22 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Genoa finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 3 – 0Wat Genoa2025/26
  2. 2 – 1Lat Torino2025/26
  3. 1 – 1Dat Torino2024/25
  4. 0 – 0Dat Genoa2024/25
  5. 0 – 0Dat Genoa2023/24
  6. 1 – 0Lat Torino2023/24
  7. 1 – 0Wat Genoa2021/22
  8. 3 – 2Lat Torino2021/22
  9. 0 – 0Dat Torino2020/21
  10. 1 – 2Lat Genoa2020/21

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made