Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 13
Lecce – Atalanta
Stadio Via del Mare (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 31,533. City: Lecce. Opened: 1966. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Lecce ↓ · Atalanta → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9% | Most Likely Result: 13.1% | 12.1% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 0 - 1 (13.1%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 0.80 – 1.79
- Expected Points
- 0.71 – 2.05
- Both Teams to Score
- 46.1%
- Over 2.5
- 47.8%
- Under 2.5
- 52.2%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Atalanta have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Lecce
- 2
- Draws
- 1
- Atalanta
- 7
10 Serie A meetings, 2019/20 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Lecce finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.