Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 12
Monza – Fiorentina
U-Power Stadium (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 17,102. City: Monza. Opened: 1988. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Monza ↓ · Fiorentina → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 6.3% | Most Likely Result: 11.7% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 3.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (11.7%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.17 – 1.69
- Expected Points
- 1.03 – 1.72
- Both Teams to Score
- 56.7%
- Over 2.5
- 54.5%
- Under 2.5
- 45.5%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 26 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Monza have scored in 10 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Fiorentina have scored in 8 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Monza
- 2
- Draws
- 2
- Fiorentina
- 2
6 Serie A meetings, 2022/23 to 2024/25. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Monza finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.