Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 12
Milan – Frosinone
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 75,923. City: Milan. Opened: 1926. Surface: Hybrid grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Milan ↓ · Frosinone → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 8.4% | Most Likely Result: 9.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 2 - 1 (9.8%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 2.21 – 1.17
- Expected Points
- 2.02 – 0.78
- Both Teams to Score
- 61.7%
- Over 2.5
- 65.5%
- Under 2.5
- 34.5%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Milan have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Milan haven't lost to Frosinone in their last 6 meetings (4W, 2D).
- Milan have scored in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Milan
- 4
- Draws
- 2
- Frosinone
- 0
6 Serie A meetings, 2015/16 to 2023/24. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Milan finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.