Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 38
Lazio – Fiorentina
Stadio Olimpico (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 70,634. City: Rome. Opened: 1932. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Lazio ↓ · Fiorentina → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.1% | Most Likely Result: 12.2% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 8.5% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (12.2%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.62 – 1.11
- Expected Points
- 1.71 – 1.03
- Both Teams to Score
- 54.2%
- Over 2.5
- 51.3%
- Under 2.5
- 48.7%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 28 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Fiorentina have scored in 8 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Lazio have scored in 11 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Lazio
- 13
- Draws
- 4
- Fiorentina
- 7
24 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Lazio finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.