Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 33
Napoli – Udinese
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 54,726. City: Naples. Opened: 1959. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Napoli ↓ · Udinese → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.3% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Most Likely Result: 12.3% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 8.0% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 2 - 0 (12.3%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.94 – 0.79
- Expected Points
- 2.14 – 0.64
- Both Teams to Score
- 47.2%
- Over 2.5
- 51.4%
- Under 2.5
- 48.6%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Napoli have scored in 9 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Napoli have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Napoli
- 17
- Draws
- 4
- Udinese
- 3
24 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Napoli finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.