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 Week 30
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 30

Lecce – Lazio

Stadio Via del Mare (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 31,533. City: Lecce. Opened: 1966. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Lecce
18%
Draws
26%
Lazio
56%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Lecce ↓ · Lazio →0123456
010.1%Most Likely Result: 14.8%12.0%6.3%2.5%0.8%0.2%
16.9%12.0%9.2%4.8%1.9%0.6%0.2%
22.8%4.4%3.5%1.8%0.7%0.2%0.1%
30.7%1.1%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
0 - 1 (14.8%)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.76 – 1.58
Expected Points
0.79 – 1.95
Both Teams to Score
42.7%
Over 2.5
41.4%
Under 2.5
58.6%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • This fixture has produced 25 cards in the last 5 meetings.
  • Lazio have scored in 11 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Lecce

  1. D
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W

Lazio

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Lecce
4
Draws
2
Lazio
4

10 Serie A meetings, 2019/20 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Lecce finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 0 – 0Dat Lecce2025/26
  2. 2 – 0Lat Lazio2025/26
  3. 0 – 1Wat Lazio2024/25
  4. 1 – 2Lat Lecce2024/25
  5. 1 – 0Lat Lazio2023/24
  6. 2 – 1Wat Lecce2023/24
  7. 2 – 2Dat Lazio2022/23
  8. 2 – 1Wat Lecce2022/23
  9. 2 – 1Wat Lecce2019/20
  10. 4 – 2Lat Lazio2019/20

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made