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 Week 30
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 30

Cagliari – Napoli

Unipol Domus (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 16,416. City: Cagliari. Opened: 2017. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Cagliari
17%
Draws
24%
Napoli
59%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Cagliari ↓ · Napoli →0123456
08.0%Most Likely Result: 12.9%11.6%6.8%3.0%1.0%0.3%
15.9%11.4%9.7%5.6%2.5%0.9%0.3%
22.6%4.6%4.0%2.3%1.0%0.4%0.1%
30.7%1.3%1.1%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
40.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
0 - 1 (12.9%)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.83 – 1.75
Expected Points
0.76 – 2.00
Both Teams to Score
47.0%
Over 2.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.4%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Cagliari have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
  • Napoli have scored in 9 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Cagliari

  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L

Napoli

  1. L
  2. W
  3. D
  4. L
  5. W

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Cagliari
1
Draws
4
Napoli
15

20 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Cagliari finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 0 – 1Lat Cagliari2025/26
  2. 1 – 0Lat Napoli2025/26
  3. 2 – 0Lat Napoli2024/25
  4. 0 – 4Lat Cagliari2024/25
  5. 1 – 1Dat Cagliari2023/24
  6. 2 – 1Lat Napoli2023/24
  7. 1 – 1Dat Cagliari2021/22
  8. 2 – 0Lat Napoli2021/22
  9. 1 – 1Dat Napoli2020/21
  10. 1 – 4Lat Cagliari2020/21

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made