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 Week 3
After the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 3

Genoa – Como

Score: Genoa 1, Como 4

Stadio Luigi Ferraris (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 33,205. City: Genoa. Opened: 1911. Surface: Grass.
Genoa
Como

Match context

  • Como have scored in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
Our model favoured this result

Model vs result

We gave it 53%
Most likely scoreline was 0-1 · actual 1-4

Genoa
20%
Draws
27%
Como
53%

Limits of the forecast

  • This forecast was fitted after the match was played, by a model that had already seen the result. No forecast was stored before kickoff, so it flatters the model and should not be read as a prediction.
  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match statistics

  • 11Shots20
  • 2On target10
  • 1Big chances3
  • 0.92Total xG2.01

GenoaxG and shot data: understat.comComo

xG Trend

xG and shot data: understat.com

Cumulative expected goalsGenoa — 18'Como — 24'Como — 29'Como — 39'Como — 77'0.922.01
Cumulative expected goals over time
Cumulative expected goals over time
Teams15'30'45'60'75'90'Total xG
Genoa0.010.570.580.760.850.920.92
Como0.210.380.951.011.612.012.01
How to read the xG trend

Expected goals added up as the match went on. The line steps up when a team shoots, and the size of the step is how good the chance was. A team that climbs in one jump had a single clear opening; a staircase means many small ones. Dots mark goals.

Shot Map

xG and shot data: understat.com

Football pitch
Shot locations for this match

GenoaComo

GoalOn targetOff targetMarker size is xG

How to read the shot map

Every shot in the match, placed where it was struck. Each team attacks the goal on its own side. A marker's area is its xG — the chance an average player scores from there. Filled means it hit the target, a white ring means it went in. Tap or hover a shot for the detail.

Line-ups

xG and shot data: understat.com

Bijlow
Marcandalli
Vásquez
Østigård
Ellertsson
Sow
Baldanzi
Sabelli
Frendrup
Colombo
1
Osmajić
Butez
Valle
Ramón
Chalobah
Couto
Cunha
Perrone
1
Baturina
1
Paz
2
Diao
Douvikas
Genoa· 3-4-1-2Como· 4-2-3-1

Head to Head

Genoa
0
Draws
2
Como
3

5 Serie A meetings, 2024/25 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Genoa finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 1 – 4Lat Genoa2026/27
  2. 0 – 2Lat Genoa2025/26
  3. 1 – 1Dat Como2025/26
  4. 1 – 0Lat Como2024/25
  5. 1 – 1Dat Genoa2024/25

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • This forecast was fitted after the match was played, by a model that had already seen the result. No forecast was stored before kickoff, so it flatters the model and should not be read as a prediction.
  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made