Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 28
Cagliari – Fiorentina
Unipol Domus (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 16,416. City: Cagliari. Opened: 2017. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Cagliari ↓ · Fiorentina → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.0% | Most Likely Result: 12.8% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 1 (12.8%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.13 – 1.47
- Expected Points
- 1.13 – 1.60
- Both Teams to Score
- 52.6%
- Over 2.5
- 48.1%
- Under 2.5
- 51.9%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Cagliari have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- This fixture has produced 26 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Fiorentina have scored in 8 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Cagliari
- 5
- Draws
- 5
- Fiorentina
- 10
20 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Cagliari finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.