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 Week 27
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 27

Lazio – Frosinone

Stadio Olimpico (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 70,634. City: Rome. Opened: 1932. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Lazio
56%
Draws
22%
Frosinone
22%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Lazio ↓ · Frosinone →0123456
04.3%4.4%2.9%1.2%0.4%0.1%0.0%
17.6%Most Likely Result: 10.1%5.9%2.4%0.7%0.2%0.0%
28.1%9.8%6.0%2.4%0.7%0.2%0.0%
35.5%6.6%4.0%1.6%0.5%0.1%0.0%
42.8%3.3%2.0%0.8%0.2%0.1%0.0%
51.1%1.4%0.8%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
60.4%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
1 - 1 (10.1%)
Expected Goals (xG)
2.02 – 1.21
Expected Points
1.89 – 0.89
Both Teams to Score
61.3%
Over 2.5
62.6%
Under 2.5
37.4%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Lazio haven't lost to Frosinone in their last 6 meetings (5W, 1D).
  • Lazio have scored in 11 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Lazio

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W

Frosinone

  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. D
  5. W

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Lazio
5
Draws
1
Frosinone
0

6 Serie A meetings, 2015/16 to 2023/24. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Lazio finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 2 – 3Wat Frosinone2023/24
  2. 3 – 1Wat Lazio2023/24
  3. 0 – 1Wat Frosinone2018/19
  4. 1 – 0Wat Lazio2018/19
  5. 0 – 0Dat Frosinone2015/16
  6. 2 – 0Wat Lazio2015/16

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made