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 Week 27
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 27

Fiorentina – Venezia

Stadio Artemio Franchi (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 43,147. City: Florence. Opened: 1931. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Fiorentina
60%
Draws
24%
Venezia
16%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Fiorentina ↓ · Venezia →0123456
08.1%5.7%2.4%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%
1Most Likely Result: 13.2%11.2%4.3%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%
212.0%9.6%3.8%1.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
37.1%5.7%2.3%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
43.1%2.5%1.0%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
51.1%0.9%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.3%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
1 - 0 (13.2%)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.77 – 0.80
Expected Points
2.04 – 0.72
Both Teams to Score
46.0%
Over 2.5
47.2%
Under 2.5
52.8%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • Fiorentina have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
  • Fiorentina have scored in 8 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Fiorentina

  1. W
  2. D
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L

Venezia

  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Fiorentina
2
Draws
1
Venezia
2

5 Serie A meetings, 2021/22 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Fiorentina finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 2 – 4Wat Venezia2026/27
  2. 2 – 1Lat Venezia2024/25
  3. 0 – 0Dat Fiorentina2024/25
  4. 1 – 0Wat Fiorentina2021/22
  5. 1 – 0Lat Venezia2021/22

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made