Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 18
Napoli – Cagliari
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 54,726. City: Naples. Opened: 1959. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Napoli ↓ · Cagliari → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.8% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Most Likely Result: 13.1% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 8.6% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 2 - 0 (13.1%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.98 – 0.73
- Expected Points
- 2.20 – 0.59
- Both Teams to Score
- 45.2%
- Over 2.5
- 50.9%
- Under 2.5
- 49.1%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Napoli have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Napoli haven't lost to Cagliari in their last 11 meetings (8W, 3D).
- Napoli have scored in 9 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Napoli
- 15
- Draws
- 4
- Cagliari
- 1
20 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Napoli finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.