Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 12
Lazio – Lecce
Stadio Olimpico (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 70,634. City: Rome. Opened: 1932. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Lazio ↓ · Lecce → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | Most Likely Result: 14.9% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 13.7% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 8.2% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 0 (14.9%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.79 – 0.67
- Expected Points
- 2.14 – 0.62
- Both Teams to Score
- 41.1%
- Over 2.5
- 44.5%
- Under 2.5
- 55.5%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 25 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Lazio haven't lost to Lecce in their last 4 meetings (3W, 1D).
- Lazio have scored in 11 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Lazio
- 4
- Draws
- 2
- Lecce
- 4
10 Serie A meetings, 2019/20 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Lazio finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.