Serie A 2026/27 · Week 1
Roma – Fiorentina
Score: Roma 4, Fiorentina 0
Roma
FiorentinaMatch context
- Roma have scored in 15 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Roma have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- This fixture has produced 29 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Roma haven't lost to Fiorentina in their last 3 meetings (3W, 0D).
Model vs result
We gave it 56%
Most likely scoreline was 1-1 · actual 4-0
- Roma
- 56%
- Draws
- 24%
- Fiorentina
- 20%
Limits of the forecast
- This forecast was fitted after the match was played, by a model that had already seen the result. No forecast was stored before kickoff, so it flatters the model and should not be read as a prediction.
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match statistics
- 17Shots9
- 8On target4
- 5Big chances0
- 3.78Total xG0.29
RomaxG and shot data: understat.comFiorentina
xG Trend
xG and shot data: understat.com
| Teams | 15' | 30' | 45' | 60' | 75' | 90' | Total xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 0.14 | 1.34 | 1.47 | 2.44 | 2.44 | 3.67 | 3.78 |
| Fiorentina | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
How to read the xG trend
Expected goals added up as the match went on. The line steps up when a team shoots, and the size of the step is how good the chance was. A team that climbs in one jump had a single clear opening; a staircase means many small ones. Dots mark goals.
Shot Map
xG and shot data: understat.com
RomaFiorentina
GoalOn targetOff targetMarker size is xG
How to read the shot map
Every shot in the match, placed where it was struck. Each team attacks the goal on its own side. A marker's area is its xG — the chance an average player scores from there. Filled means it hit the target, a white ring means it went in. Tap or hover a shot for the detail.
Line-ups
xG and shot data: understat.com
Head to Head
- Roma
- 15
- Draws
- 5
- Fiorentina
- 5
25 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Roma finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- This forecast was fitted after the match was played, by a model that had already seen the result. No forecast was stored before kickoff, so it flatters the model and should not be read as a prediction.
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.