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 Week 1
After the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 1

Parma – Cagliari

Score: Parma 0, Cagliari 1

Stadio Ennio Tardini (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 22,352. City: Parma. Opened: 1923. Surface: Grass.
Parma
Cagliari

Match context

  • Parma have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
Our model did not favour this result

Model vs result

We gave it 33%
Most likely scoreline was 1-1 · actual 0-1

Parma
37%
Draws
30%
Cagliari
33%

Limits of the forecast

  • This forecast was fitted after the match was played, by a model that had already seen the result. No forecast was stored before kickoff, so it flatters the model and should not be read as a prediction.
  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match statistics

  • 12Shots14
  • 2On target5
  • 1Big chances1
  • 1.03Total xG1.26

ParmaxG and shot data: understat.comCagliari

xG Trend

xG and shot data: understat.com

Cumulative expected goalsCagliari — 78'1.031.26
Cumulative expected goals over time
Cumulative expected goals over time
Teams15'30'45'60'75'90'Total xG
Parma0.520.540.660.740.740.801.03
Cagliari0.100.160.871.001.241.261.26
How to read the xG trend

Expected goals added up as the match went on. The line steps up when a team shoots, and the size of the step is how good the chance was. A team that climbs in one jump had a single clear opening; a staircase means many small ones. Dots mark goals.

Shot Map

xG and shot data: understat.com

Football pitch
Shot locations for this match

ParmaCagliari

GoalOn targetOff targetMarker size is xG

How to read the shot map

Every shot in the match, placed where it was struck. Each team attacks the goal on its own side. A marker's area is its xG — the chance an average player scores from there. Filled means it hit the target, a white ring means it went in. Tap or hover a shot for the detail.

Line-ups

xG and shot data: understat.com

Corvi
Valeri
Troilo
Ndiaye
Prato
Konate
Bernabé
Ordóñez
Lontani
Touré
Keita
Caprile
Obert
Deiola
Rodriguez
Figueiredo
1
Romano
Winks
Fazzini
Maldini
Adopo
Mendy
Parma· 4-3-3Cagliari· 4-2-3-1

Head to Head

Parma
1
Draws
4
Cagliari
8

13 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Parma finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 0 – 1Lat Parma2026/27
  2. 1 – 1Dat Parma2025/26
  3. 2 – 0Lat Cagliari2025/26
  4. 2 – 1Lat Cagliari2024/25
  5. 2 – 3Lat Parma2024/25
  6. 4 – 3Lat Cagliari2020/21
  7. 0 – 0Dat Parma2020/21
  8. 2 – 2Dat Cagliari2019/20
  9. 1 – 3Lat Parma2019/20
  10. 2 – 1Lat Cagliari2018/19

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • This forecast was fitted after the match was played, by a model that had already seen the result. No forecast was stored before kickoff, so it flatters the model and should not be read as a prediction.
  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made