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 Week 1
After the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 1

Atalanta – Sassuolo

Score: Atalanta 2, Sassuolo 1

Gewiss Stadium (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 25,000. City: Bergamo. Opened: 1928. Surface: Grass.
Atalanta
Sassuolo

Match context

  • Atalanta have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
Our model favoured this result

Model vs result

We gave it 64%
Most likely scoreline was 2-1 · exactly right

Atalanta
64%
Draws
20%
Sassuolo
17%

Limits of the forecast

  • This forecast was fitted after the match was played, by a model that had already seen the result. No forecast was stored before kickoff, so it flatters the model and should not be read as a prediction.
  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match statistics

  • 14Shots22
  • 8On target8
  • 1Big chances4
  • 0.92Total xG2.70

AtalantaxG and shot data: understat.comSassuolo

xG Trend

xG and shot data: understat.com

Cumulative expected goalsSassuolo — 5'Sassuolo — 54'Atalanta — 64'0.922.70
Cumulative expected goals over time
Cumulative expected goals over time
Teams15'30'45'60'75'90'Total xG
Atalanta0.160.330.340.450.800.880.92
Sassuolo0.090.661.472.472.672.682.70
How to read the xG trend

Expected goals added up as the match went on. The line steps up when a team shoots, and the size of the step is how good the chance was. A team that climbs in one jump had a single clear opening; a staircase means many small ones. Dots mark goals.

Shot Map

xG and shot data: understat.com

Football pitch
Shot locations for this match

AtalantaSassuolo

GoalOn targetOff targetMarker size is xG

How to read the shot map

Every shot in the match, placed where it was struck. Each team attacks the goal on its own side. A marker's area is its xG — the chance an average player scores from there. Filled means it hit the target, a white ring means it went in. Tap or hover a shot for the detail.

Line-ups

xG and shot data: understat.com

Carnesecchi
Bernasconi
Scalvini
Kossounou
Zappacosta
Gaetano
Pasalic
Éderson
1
Raspadori
Scamacca
Zalewski
Murić
Doig
1
Odenthal
Macchioni
Cinquegrano
Bakola
Matic
Adžić
Laurienté
Bowie
Volpato
Atalanta· 4-3-3Sassuolo· 4-3-3

Head to Head

Atalanta
14
Draws
5
Sassuolo
4

23 Serie A meetings, 2014/15 to 2026/27. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Atalanta finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 2 – 1Wat Atalanta2026/27
  2. 2 – 1Lat Sassuolo2025/26
  3. 0 – 3Lat Atalanta2025/26
  4. 3 – 0Wat Atalanta2023/24
  5. 0 – 2Wat Sassuolo2023/24
  6. 1 – 0Lat Sassuolo2022/23
  7. 2 – 1Wat Atalanta2022/23
  8. 2 – 1Lat Sassuolo2021/22
  9. 2 – 1Wat Atalanta2021/22
  10. 1 – 1Dat Sassuolo2020/21

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • This forecast was fitted after the match was played, by a model that had already seen the result. No forecast was stored before kickoff, so it flatters the model and should not be read as a prediction.
  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made