Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 36
Lecce – Fiorentina
Stadio Via del Mare (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 31,533. City: Lecce. Opened: 1966. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Lecce ↓ · Fiorentina → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1% | Most Likely Result: 13.5% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 12.9% | 9.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 0 - 1 (13.5%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 0.89 – 1.45
- Expected Points
- 0.96 – 1.76
- Both Teams to Score
- 45.6%
- Over 2.5
- 41.4%
- Under 2.5
- 58.6%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- This fixture has produced 28 cards in the last 5 meetings.
- Fiorentina have scored in 8 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Lecce
- 3
- Draws
- 3
- Fiorentina
- 4
10 Serie A meetings, 2019/20 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Lecce finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.