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 Week 27
Before the match

Serie A 2026/27 · Week 27

Lecce – Como

Stadio Via del Mare (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 31,533. City: Lecce. Opened: 1966. Surface: Grass.

Pre-Match Forecast

Lecce
14%
Draws
25%
Como
61%
Challenge the Model

Exact Scoreline Probabilities

Likelihood of each final scoreline, from the model's Poisson grid.
Lecce ↓ · Como →0123456
010.2%Most Likely Result: 15.9%13.5%7.5%3.1%1.0%0.3%
16.1%11.2%9.0%5.0%2.1%0.7%0.2%
22.2%3.6%3.0%1.7%0.7%0.2%0.1%
30.5%0.8%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%
40.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most Likely Result
0 - 1 (15.9%)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.66 – 1.66
Expected Points
0.67 – 2.08
Both Teams to Score
39.7%
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%

Limits of the forecast

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

Match context

  • This fixture has produced 20 cards in the last 4 meetings.
  • Como have scored in 7 consecutive Serie A matches.

Recent form

Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.

Lecce

  1. D
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W

Como

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. D

WwinDdrawLdefeat

Head to Head

Lecce
0
Draws
0
Como
4

4 Serie A meetings, 2024/25 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.

The letter on each result is how Lecce finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat

  1. 3 – 1Lat Como2025/26
  2. 0 – 3Lat Lecce2025/26
  3. 0 – 3Lat Lecce2024/25
  4. 2 – 0Lat Como2024/25

How the model works

How this is calculated

Fitted on

Limits

  • Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
  • Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.

How a prediction is made