Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 23
Lecce – Napoli
Stadio Via del Mare (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 31,533. City: Lecce. Opened: 1966. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Lecce ↓ · Napoli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7% | Most Likely Result: 15.6% | 13.8% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 0 - 1 (15.6%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 0.66 – 1.72
- Expected Points
- 0.64 – 2.12
- Both Teams to Score
- 39.9%
- Over 2.5
- 42.4%
- Under 2.5
- 57.6%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Napoli have scored in 9 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Lecce
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Napoli
- 7
10 Serie A meetings, 2019/20 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Lecce finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.