Before the match
Serie A 2026/27 · Week 14
Napoli – Lecce
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (on Google Maps, opens in a new tab)Capacity: 54,726. City: Naples. Opened: 1959. Surface: Grass.
Exact Scoreline Probabilities
| Napoli ↓ · Lecce → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | Most Likely Result: 15.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 15.2% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 9.9% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- Most Likely Result
- 1 - 0 (15.2%)
- Expected Goals (xG)
- 1.95 – 0.58
- Expected Points
- 2.30 – 0.50
- Both Teams to Score
- 38.0%
- Over 2.5
- 46.3%
- Under 2.5
- 53.7%
Limits of the forecast
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.
Match context
- Napoli have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
- Napoli haven't lost to Lecce in their last 8 meetings (6W, 2D).
- Napoli have scored in 9 consecutive Serie A matches.
Recent form
Last five Serie A matches, most recent first.
WwinDdrawLdefeat
Head to Head
- Napoli
- 7
- Draws
- 2
- Lecce
- 1
10 Serie A meetings, 2019/20 to 2025/26. The ten most recent are listed.
The letter on each result is how Napoli finished it:WwinDdrawLdefeat
How the model works
How this is calculated
Fitted on
Limits
- Goals-only model: injuries, suspensions and lineups are not modelled.
- Promoted clubs with no Serie A history are excluded.